2021 Hero World Challenge odds, field: Surprising PGA picks, predictions from model that's nailed 7 majors - CBSSports.com

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The golfing world has allowed itself to entertain the possibility of a Tiger Woods return with video surfacing on social media of him on the range. However, Woods tried to temper expectations during a press conference at the 2021 Hero World Challenge this week, claiming that a full-time return to the game appeared unlikely. Woods won't be able to play at the tournament to benefit his own foundation this season, but 20 of the world's best players will be at the Albany Golf Course in the Bahamas competing for the $3.5 million purse starting on Thursday.

Rory McIlroy is the 15-2 favorite, with Collin Morikawa just behind him, at 8-1 in the latest 2021 Hero World Challenge odds from Caesars Sportsbook. Also competing in the no-cut event will be Justin Thomas (10-1) and Jordan Spieth (11-1), as will Bryson DeChambeau (12-1) and Brooks Koepka (20-1) fresh off their match play competition last week. With such a strong field playing in this unique event, be sure to check out the predictions and projected leaderboard from SportsLine's advanced computer model before locking in your 2021 Hero World Challenge picks.

SportsLine's proprietary model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, has been red-hot since the PGA Tour resumed in June of 2020. In fact, it's up almost $10,000 on its best bets since that point, nailing tournament after tournament.

Earlier this month at the 2021 World Wide Technology Championship at Mayakoba, the model was all over Viktor Hovland (18-1) winning his third PGA Tour title.

At the 2021 Open Championship, McClure's best bets included Collin Morikawa winning outright even though he was listed as a massive 40-1 long shot. He was also all over Daniel Berger (+220) and Emiliano Grillo (+700) finishing inside the top-20. McClure's best bets netted over $2,200 at the 2021 Open Championship.

In addition, McClure's model was all over Jon Rahm's (10-1) first career major championship victory at the 2021 U.S. Open. Rahm was two strokes off the lead heading into the weekend, but the model still projected him as the winner. And at the 2021 Masters, McClure nailed Rahm's (+250) top-five finish in his best bets, as well as Corey Conners' (+550) top-10 showing.

This same model has also nailed a whopping seven majors entering the weekend. Anyone who has followed it has seen massive returns.

Now that the 2021 Hero World Challenge field is locked, SportsLine simulated the event 10,000 times, and the results were surprising. Head to SportsLine now to see the projected 2021 Hero World Challenge leaderboard.

The model's top 2021 Hero World Challenge predictions

One major surprise the model is calling for at the 2021 Hero World Challenge: McIlroy, a 34-time professional winner and the Vegas favorite in this event at 15-2, stumbles and finishes outside of the top three. Expectations are high since he won his only PGA event this season thus far, taking first in the CJ Cup at Summit last month.

But, while he was regularly in contention, he only picked up one outright win last season on the PGA Tour. His driving accuracy last season was a bit sporadic (57.4 percent) as well and he finished outside the top 65 on the PGA Tour in strokes gained putting and around the green. The model doesn't like his value as the favorite in this loaded 2021 Hero World Challenge field.

Another surprise: Scottie Scheffler, a 16-1 long shot, makes a strong run at the title. He has a much better chance to win it all than his odds imply, so he's one of the 2021 Hero World Challenge sleeper picks you should be all over.

The No. 19 player in the Official World Golf Ranking has had top-five finishes in two of his last three worldwide starts, and the dynamic young talent from the University of Texas has quickly established himself as one of the PGA Tour's brightest stars in just over two years as a full-time tour member. He was the 2020 PGA Tour Rookie of the Year and he had three top-10 finishes in major championship play in 2021. He's playing well right now and his tee-to-green game should make him a serious threat to go low at Albany Golf Course this week.

How to make 2021 Hero World Challenge picks

The model is also targeting two other golfers with odds of 16-1 or higher who will make surprising runs. Anyone who backs these long shots could hit it big. You can only see them here.

So who will win the Hero World Challenge 2021? And which long shots stun the golfing world? Check out the odds below and then visit SportsLine to see the projected 2021 Hero World Challenge leaderboard, all from the model that's nailed seven golf majors and is up almost $10,000 since the restart.