ATLANTA -- The first two games of the World Series were mirror images of each other; the Braves slugged their way to a Game 1 victory, while the Astros countered with a breakout night of their own in Game 2.
What can we expect in Game 3? And what about the rest of the Series?
Every game during this time of year tends to take on a life of its own, but what factors will play the biggest roles in determining which team hoists the Commissioner’s Trophy when all is said and done? Here are three things that will go a long way toward crowning the 2021 World Series champion:
1. (Lack of) experience factor
The Game 3 matchup of Atlanta’s Ian Anderson and Houston’s Luis Garcia represents just the eighth time in World Series history that rookie starters have opposed each other, the first since 2006 when Anthony Reyes of the Cardinals squared off against a young Tigers hurler named Justin Verlander.
The neophytes have some serious historical weight on their talented shoulders. Of the 60 World Series that have started out 1-1, the Game 3 winner has gone on to win the series 39 times (65%), including 13 of the past 17 (76%).
“Every game is such a separate entity,” Braves manager Brian Snitker said. “I think it lasts a couple hours after a big win, but then it's kind of turn the page. I think that's really true -- that momentum is as good as your next day’s starter, pretty much.”
Neither starter has gone particularly deep into a game this postseason, but the Braves have won all three of Anderson’s starts, and the Astros rode a solid outing from Garcia to a clinching victory over the Red Sox in the American League Championship Series.
Both pitchers have a relatively vast level of postseason experience given their rookie status, having each pitched for their respective club in last year’s playoffs. Yet, among all of the hitters on the Braves and Astros, Houston utility man Marwin Gonzalez is the only player on either side who has faced their opposing Game 3 starter, something that could give the pitchers an edge on Friday.
“I’m definitely going to try to use that to my advantage,” Anderson said. “I think with my pitch mix, it definitely helps me out a little bit with the fastball/changeup. Definitely going to try to be on the attack, feed off the energy of the crowd, and put the pressure on them.”
Snitker believes the advantage always goes to a pitcher over a hitter the first time they see each other.
“They can watch tape until they get in the box,” Snitker said of the batters. “They have no idea what that feel is going to be.”
Dusty Baker agrees with his counterpart, noting that it’s easier for a pitcher to throw the ball where he wants to than it is to figure out where that pitch is headed. Still, the Astros’ manager recalled the words of a legend while discussing the subject.
“Hank Aaron used to say, ‘If you've never seen a pitcher, you initiate him right away and kill his spirit,’” Baker said. “Hopefully we can initiate him.”
Yet, nobody is swinging a hotter bat than Michael Brantley, who is 5-for-9 with two doubles through the first two games of the Series. Dating back to Game 3 of the 2020 AL Division Series, Brantley -- the man known as “Dr. Smooth” -- has hit .367 (33-for-90) with 17 RBIs in his last 21 postseason games.
Snitker compared Brantley to Nick Markakis, who played for the manager in Atlanta from 2016-20, citing their consistency and the fact that neither tended to stand out despite their immense talent.
“The at-bats are crazy, how deep he lets the ball get,” Snitker said. “He's just a total player. Very professional. I've talked to a lot of people that know him real well, and I've had conversations with him. I'm a big fan.”
Brantley enters Game 3 with multihit efforts in four of his past five games, giving him 18 such performances since the start of the 2017 season. Only Altuve (26) and George Springer (20) have more during that time. His .303 career postseason average ranks 10th all-time among the 91 players who have logged a minimum of 200 plate appearances.
Of Brantley’s eight batted balls in the World Series, seven of them have had an exit velocity of 99 mph or higher, per Statcast. Nobody else in the Series has registered more than three.
“He has tremendous balance, and he has good eyes,” Baker said. “He uses the whole field. There’s no one way to pitch him, and there’s no one way to play him.”
3. Home sweet home
The Astros were unable to defend their home-field advantage, dropping Game 1 at Minute Maid Park. If the Braves continue their stunning home-field success at Truist Park over the next three games, Atlanta will earn its first World Series title since 1995.
The Braves are 5-0 at home this postseason, posting far better numbers in Atlanta than on the road:
• Home rotation ERA: 2.95
• Road rotation ERA: 4.50
• Home bullpen ERA: 1.90
• Road bullpen ERA: 4.66
• Home OPS: .766
• Road OPS: .702
“Braves Country is real,” Snitker said. “The fans have come out in droves. I don't know that this group needs a lot more energy than what they have, but I think they can draw on the energy of the crowd. They enjoy it and appreciate it.”
Atlanta has fared particularly well with Anderson on the mound at home, winning 15 of his 19 career starts at Truist -- including all five of his home postseason starts. Overall, Anderson is 9-2 with a 2.62 ERA in his home outings.
“It’s been awesome,” Anderson said of the home crowd. “We’ve kind of taken it on as an identity.”
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